- Will the Democrats win New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election?74¢74 %
- Will the Republicans win New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election?26¢26 %
7 %73,5 %Democratic Party7,6 t $ vol.
8 %25,5 %Republican Party1,7 t $ vol.
Democratic Party positioning at 73.5% in the 2028 New Hampshire presidential contest reflects the state's consistent recent electoral support for Democratic nominees in general elections, alongside early-cycle expectations around primary dynamics and voter turnout patterns. The Republican Party trails at 25.5%, consistent with historical margins in this swing state. Individual candidate contracts at 50% signal broad uncertainty this far ahead of primaries, with no dominant frontrunners yet established through polling averages or endorsements. Limited verifiable developments in the past 30 days have left probabilities stable, as the focus remains on long-term factors like Electoral College math, battleground state trends, and potential shifts from candidate announcements or national party positioning.
Regler
The 2028 Presidential Election is expected to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate, or, in the case of an independent candidate, the named candidate, who wins the most valid statewide votes of any candidate in New Hampshire in the 2028 Presidential Election. A candidate will be considered to represent a party if they are the nominee of that party. A candidate who is the nominee of either the Democratic or Republican Party will be considered to represent that party, regardless of any additional party affiliations they may have. This market resolves based on the candidate that wins the most statewide votes in the specified state in the 2028 US presidential election, regardless of the subsequent distribution of that state’s electoral college votes. For states using ranked-choice voting or another multi-round system, the vote count from the final round will be used. The nominees of relevant parties may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. If any named party nominee is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and this market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the statewide New Hampshire results of the 2028 presidential election cannot be definitively determined by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution sources for this market are the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; however, the certified statewide results of the 2028 presidential election may also be used. This market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have all concurrently called the state for the same candidate. If one or more of these news organizations does not make statewide race calls for the 2028 presidential election it will be considered to have been struck from this list. If the relevant news organizations do not reach consensus, this market will resolve based on the certified results of the election reported by the state government.