- Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?70¢70 %
Democratic control of both chambers following the 2026 midterms gives the House authority to advance articles of impeachment by simple majority. Prediction markets adjusted sharply higher after results showed Democratic gains sufficient for majorities, reflecting expectations of investigations into administration actions, cabinet officials, and related matters once the new Congress convenes in January 2027. Historical precedent of prior House impeachments during Trump’s first term reinforces trader views that proceedings could advance regardless of Senate conviction prospects, which require a two-thirds majority unlikely under current seat projections. Public polling indicates divided but notable support for pursuing accountability measures, while Democratic leadership statements have left options open without firm commitments. These factors underpin the current implied probability for House action before the term concludes in 2029.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump between market creation and January 20, 2029, at 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.