- Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?3¢3 %
The 97.3% trader consensus on “No” reflects the absence of any new U.S. ground invasion or regime-change operation in Latin America since the January 2026 Venezuela action, with only weeks remaining in the year. Recent developments center on joint counter-narcotics training with Colombian forces, U.S. intelligence support for Venezuelan strikes on ELN targets, and expanded security cooperation under initiatives like the Shield of the Americas, rather than unilateral U.S. military intervention. High-level visits, including those by U.S. officials to Bogotá, and explicit rejections of invasion proposals by Mexico and others reinforce the low probability. A late-year shift would require rapid escalation with Mexico or Cuba, major new intelligence triggers, or unforeseen leadership changes, none of which current diplomatic and military patterns indicate.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.