- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?9¢9 %
Traders assign a 91.5% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2027, reflecting assessments that Beijing continues to prioritize gray-zone pressure through elevated air and naval sorties, coast guard patrols, and amphibious ship construction over a high-risk amphibious assault. US intelligence assessments highlight persistent PLA readiness gaps from ongoing military purges and the absence of a fixed invasion timeline, with preference for political leverage ahead of Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Ongoing US-China diplomatic channels, including risk-reduction talks, and Taiwan’s enhanced deterrence measures with allied support further underpin the consensus. While cross-strait tensions persist, verifiable developments show calibrated activity rather than mobilization for imminent conflict, though late shifts in leadership calculations or miscalculation remain possible factors.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.