- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for Senate in 2028?45¢45 %
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run for President in 2028?43¢43 %
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez not run for Senate or President in 2028?10¢10 %
- 9 %44,5 %SenateObjem 24,5 tis. $
- 2 %42,5 %PresidentObjem 60,3 tis. $
- 6 %9,5 %NeitherObjem 15,9 tis. $
Recent Democratic midterm gains, including Abdul El-Sayed’s Michigan Senate victory backed by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have intensified progressive momentum and prompted her campaign’s November 3 memo emphasizing national fundraising and endorsements. This has elevated speculation about a 2028 presidential bid while her option to challenge Senator Chuck Schumer in New York remains open, with AOC herself noting post-midterm timing for any decision. The near-even split between presidential and Senate probabilities reflects uncertainty over her preferred path—high-risk national primary versus a stronger position in a home-state contest—amid ongoing DSA and progressive recruitment efforts. Developments such as early 2027 endorsements, Schumer’s intentions, or new polling could shift trader consensus before any announcement.
Pravidla
This market will resolve based on the office, between United States Senator and President of the United States, that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez first officially announces that she is running for in the 2028 election cycle by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to resolve this market in favor of the corresponding outcome, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The formation of an exploratory committee, or a statement that she is exploring or considering a run, will not qualify, nor will any filing that is not accompanied by an announcement. If the listed individual does not announce that she is running for either listed office by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither". An announcement of a run for the US House of Representatives will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.