- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?98¢98 %
- Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?1¢1 %
- 2 %98,4 %NoneObjem 10,4 mil. $
- 1 %1,4 %AKObjem 1,6 mil. $
Democrats secured victories across the core 2026 Senate swing states of Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, including multiple flips of long-held Republican seats, which established firm leads or outright wins by election night. These outcomes produced a broad shift that left Republicans without any victories in the seven races tracked by the market. Traders have priced “None” near 98 percent to reflect these confirmed results and the absence of viable Republican paths elsewhere. The slim remaining probability for Alaska rests on final vote tabulation in that single uncalled contest, where current margins favor the Democratic candidate; any reversal would require sustained shifts in outstanding ballots that have not materialized.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.