- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?52¢52 %
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?28¢28 %
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will DeepSeek have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will MiniMax have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?4¢4 %
- Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will StepFun have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Moonshot have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
- Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of December 2026?1¢1 %
5 %51,5 %GoogleObjem 6,6 tis. $
18 %27,5 %AnthropicObjem 7,5 tis. $
1 %4 %OpenAIObjem 345 $
1 %3,9 %MetaObjem 306,6 $
1 %3,6 %DeepSeekObjem 296,6 $
1 %3,5 %MiniMaxObjem 314,6 $
2,2 %MistralObjem 317,6 $
1,7 %StepFunObjem 296,6 $
1,7 %MicrosoftObjem 321,6 $
1 %1,5 %MoonshotObjem 296,6 $
1,4 %Z.aiObjem 321,6 $
1,1 %TencentObjem 296,6 $
Google's Gemini 4 Argon and Carbon variants currently lead Text Arena Math ratings on LMArena with scores around 1536, ahead of Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 models in the 1520-1530 range. This positioning underpins the 53.5% implied probability for Google, as recent leaderboard updates show its large language models excelling on math prompts through stronger chain-of-reasoning and benchmark performance. Anthropic remains competitive at 31.5% due to overlapping confidence intervals and proven math capabilities, while OpenAI and others lag further behind. With the December resolution still weeks away, traders are pricing in continuity of Google's edge absent major new releases, though tight gaps highlight how incremental model updates or style-controlled voting could shift outcomes.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".