- Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be below 1.5?<1¢<1 %
- Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 1.5 but below 2.0?<1¢<1 %
- Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.0 but below 2.25?3¢3 %
- Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be at least 2.25 but below 2.5?25¢25 %
- Will the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño be 2.5 or above?72¢72 %
- 1 %2,7 %2.0–2.25Objem 9,7 tis. $
- 3 %24,5 %2.25–2.5Objem 83,6 tis. $
- 2 %71,5 %Over 2.5Objem 71,3 tis. $
This market resolves based on the peak RONI — the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as published in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. This market may resolve immediately once NOAA has published a RONI value that determines the peak: the "Over 2.5" outcome resolves "Yes" as soon as any listed season reaches +2.5°C or above. Any other outcome will not be confirmed until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value, since RONI can still rise in a later season and DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window. The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.
Recent NOAA Climate Prediction Center data show the 2026–27 El Niño rapidly intensifying, with weekly Niño 3.4 anomalies reaching +3.3 °C and the three-month RONI at +1.7 °C for July–September. Subsurface heat content remains exceptionally high across the eastern equatorial Pacific, sustaining further strengthening through year-end per multi-model consensus. The October 8 CPC outlook assigns an 83 % probability that the October–December RONI will exceed +2.5 °C—the threshold for a historic event surpassing all post-1950 episodes—while strong-to-very-strong conditions (> +1.5 °C) are expected to persist through January–March 2027 at over 83 % likelihood. These verified observations and forecast probabilities underpin trader consensus favoring a peak RONI above 2.5.
Pravidla
This market resolves "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is +2.5°C or above. Otherwise, it resolves "No". This market resolves "Yes" as soon as NOAA publishes a RONI value of +2.5°C or above for any listed season. If no listed season reaches +2.5°C, this market resolves "No" once NOAA has published the RONI value for DJF 2026-27. The peak RONI is the single highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlapping three-month seasons ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, and DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/). The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs resolution; no subsequent revision to a season's value will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published. If CPC's RONI dataset is permanently discontinued, other information from NOAA may be used.