- Viktor Orbán arrested by...?10¢10 %
- Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?34¢34 %
- 1 %10 %December 31, 2026Objem 118,9 tis. $
- 33,5 %June 30, 2027Objem 23,3 tis. $
Hungary’s new government under Prime Minister Péter Magyar has accelerated anti-corruption investigations into officials from Viktor Orbán’s prior administration, resulting in pretrial detentions of several former ministers and the central bank governor on graft and fraud allegations since September 2026. One probe centers on a March 2026 incident in which Orbán reportedly ordered the detention of Ukrainian bank employees transporting cash and gold; that inquiry is described as nearing completion and could produce the first formal charges against Orbán himself. Orbán has voluntarily relinquished parliamentary immunity and characterized the efforts as politically motivated, while a newly appointed prosecutor general advances dozens of related cases. Legal timelines for indictment, arrest, and any required parliamentary steps make resolution by December 31 uncertain despite the active investigations.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.