Trump impeached and removed before 2028?
PolitikaTrumpKongresPo volbáchTrump Presidency
Začátek
2026-11-03
Konec
2028-01-01
Objem 24 h
$2K
Celkový objem
$33K
  • Trump impeached and removed before 2028?20¢20 %

Democratic control of both congressional chambers following the 2026 midterms enables House Democrats to advance articles of impeachment with a simple majority, yet Senate conviction and removal require a two-thirds vote that current partisan margins make improbable. With roughly 54 Democratic senators, any removal would need substantial Republican support that has not materialized in prior proceedings. Democratic leaders have signaled priorities around affordability and oversight rather than immediate impeachment efforts, while earlier 2026 resolutions stalled without broad backing. Historical precedent of acquittals in divided Senate votes further anchors trader assessments that removal before 2028 remains unlikely absent major bipartisan shifts or unforeseen developments.

Pravidla

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump is impeached and removed from the office of President of the United States by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Impeachment means the U.S. House of Representatives approves one or more articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Removal means the U.S. Senate votes to convict Donald Trump on one or more articles of impeachment by the two-thirds vote required under the U.S. Constitution, as announced by the presiding officer of the Senate. The conviction will be considered to occur at the time of that announcement. Whip counts, statements of intended votes, and partial vote tallies will not qualify. This market will resolve to “Yes” upon a qualifying conviction, regardless of when the Senate pronounces judgment, whether it votes on disqualification from future office, whether Donald Trump vacates the office, or any legal challenge to the conviction. Impeachment without a Senate conviction will not qualify. An acquittal or dismissal of articles of impeachment will not, on its own, resolve this market. A transfer of presidential powers to the Vice President under the 25th Amendment will not qualify and will not count as leaving office. If Donald Trump formally leaves the office of President of the United States for any reason before a qualifying conviction, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. An announcement of a future resignation does not count as leaving office. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Congress, including Senate roll call votes; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump impeached and removed before 2028?

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