- Will Wu Hsiu-hua win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?81¢81 %
- Will Chen Ying win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?19¢19 %
- Will Li Wu Ying-chih win the next Taitung County Magistrate election?2¢2 %
6 %81 %Wu Hsiu-huaObjem 8,8 tis. $
4 %19,2 %Chen YingObjem 8,7 tis. $
3 %1,6 %Li Wu Ying-chihObjem 3,1 tis. $
Wu Hsiu-hua, the Kuomintang nominee and current Taitung County Council speaker, holds an 81% implied probability in this market as the clear frontrunner for the November 28, 2026, magistrate election. Taitung County's long-standing KMT structural advantage and her institutional position as council speaker underpin trader consensus, especially with term-limited incumbent April Yao stepping aside. The primary DPP challenger, legislator Chen Ying, trails at 18.8% despite efforts to consolidate opposition support among Puyuma and other voters. A late-October corruption probe involving Wu's brother, which included searches of her office, introduced some uncertainty but has not shifted the market's assessment of her path to victory. Other candidates, including independent Li Wu Ying-chih at 1.6%, remain marginal factors in the race.
Pravidla
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Magistrate of Taitung County as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Magistrates appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).