- Will Xiaomi be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?37¢37 %
- Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?36¢36 %
- Will Tencent be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?23¢23 %
- Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?18¢18 %
- Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?15¢15 %
- Will Baidu be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?4¢4 %
- Will DeepSeek be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?4¢4 %
- Will ByteDance be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?2¢2 %
- Will Meituan be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?1¢1 %
- Will StepFun be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?1¢1 %
- Will MiniMax be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of November 2026?<1¢<1 %
11 %36,9 %XiaomiObjem 3,2 tis. $
3 %35,5 %AlibabaObjem 7,9 tis. $
18 %23,3 %TencentObjem 1,5 tis. $
7 %18 %Z.aiObjem 2,4 tis. $
13 %15 %MoonshotObjem 5,7 tis. $
4 %BaiduObjem 667,1 $
3,6 %DeepSeekObjem 694,9 $
1,5 %ByteDanceObjem 665,2 $
1 %1,3 %MeituanObjem 1,4 tis. $
2 %1 %StepFunObjem 1,6 tis. $
0,8 %MiniMaxObjem 744,8 $
Recent model releases and benchmark results from Moonshot, Xiaomi, and Alibaba are the main factors shaping trader consensus on the second-best Chinese AI lab. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Kimi K3.1 Pro lead several November 2026 rankings with their 2.8-trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts architecture, long context, and agentic performance, while Xiaomi’s MiMo-V2.6-Pro tops certain open-weight intelligence indices. Alibaba’s Qwen3.8-Max delivers strong multimodal results plus unmatched developer ecosystem scale and cloud revenue. DeepSeek and Z.ai remain competitive on efficiency and open weights but trail on recent composite scores. With the market resolving in under three weeks, any new November releases or benchmark updates could quickly shift the close probabilities among the leaders.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".