- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?5¢5 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?14¢14 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027?23¢23 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027?28¢28 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?36¢36 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?42¢42 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2027?51¢51 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?53¢53 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by July 31, 2027?60¢60 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2027?63¢63 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by September 30, 2027?64¢64 %
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?64¢64 %
- 4,5 %November 30Objem 182,7 tis. $
- 2 %14,5 %December 31Objem 3,3 mil. $
- 2 %23 %January 31, 2027Objem 196,5 tis. $
- 2 %28,5 %February 28, 2027Objem 43,5 tis. $
- 1 %35,5 %March 31, 2027Objem 359 tis. $
- 2 %41,5 %April 30, 2027Objem 82,6 tis. $
- 1 %50,5 %May 31, 2027Objem 132,2 tis. $
- 2 %52,5 %June 30, 2027Objem 184,5 tis. $
- 1 %60 %July 31, 2027Objem 6,3 tis. $
- 1 %63 %August 31, 2027Objem 14,8 tis. $
- 63,5 %September 30, 2027Objem 6,2 tis. $
- 1 %63,5 %October 31, 2027Objem 73 tis. $
US-mediated trilateral talks scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi represent the primary near-term catalyst for trader assessments of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. These working-level discussions, involving envoys from Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv, will address post-war security arrangements, de-escalation measures, humanitarian access, and pathways to broader negotiations. They build on the late-October localized ceasefire around occupied Oleshky in Kherson region, which enabled limited aid deliveries and evacuations before expiring. Persistent gaps remain over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality or NATO status, and mutual security guarantees. Ongoing frontline operations and any outcomes from the Abu Dhabi meetings could shift probabilities by clarifying whether parties are prepared to freeze positions or pursue a comprehensive settlement.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.