- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?23¢23 %
President Donald Trump's repeated public statements backing Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, including assertions that he is "doing a very good job," represent the primary factor supporting the 75% "No" odds. Following Republican midterm losses widely linked to the ongoing Iran conflict, some lawmakers from both parties have floated impeachment articles or resignation pressure when Congress returns November 9, yet the White House has signaled no plans for replacement before the January Senate transition. Hegseth has affirmed his commitment to serve through the term, with Pentagon statements emphasizing continuity. The compressed timeline to November 30 limits realistic paths for removal absent presidential action, aligning trader consensus with the current institutional and political barriers.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.