- Obama arrested before 2027?1¢1 %
Traders assign a 98.8% probability that Barack Obama will not face arrest before 2027 because no federal or state charges, indictments, or active investigations exist that would support such an action. As a former president, Obama retains institutional protections and faces high evidentiary thresholds for any arrest, with no recent DOJ proceedings, congressional referrals, or court filings altering that baseline. The market reflects this absence of catalysts over the past thirty days and the broader pattern that former presidents are rarely detained absent extraordinary circumstances. Late-breaking developments such as a new indictment, special counsel referral, or unforeseen legal development could still shift odds, though none are currently underway.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.