- Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?88¢88 %
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?10¢10 %
- Will Santiago Abascal be the next Prime Minister of Spain?1¢1 %
- Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Carlos Cuerpo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will María Jesús Montero be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Yolanda Díaz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Ernest Urtasun be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Aitor Esteban be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Miguel Tellado be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Ester Muñoz be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
- Will Pepa Millán be the next Prime Minister of Spain?<1¢<1 %
2 %87,5 %Alberto Núñez FeijóoObjem 637,4 tis. $
1 %10,2 %Pedro SánchezObjem 911,9 tis. $
1 %1,1 %Santiago AbascalObjem 348,8 tis. $
0,2 %Isabel Díaz AyusoObjem 293,5 tis. $
0,2 %Carlos CuerpoObjem 249,5 tis. $
Alberto Núñez Feijóo of the People's Party leads trader consensus at 89.5% for Spain's next prime minister, reflecting consistent polling advantages for the PP ahead of the November 29 snap election and the likelihood of a governing arrangement with Vox to reach a congressional majority. Pedro Sánchez's 9.9% price aligns with recent parliamentary defeats on housing measures that prompted the early vote, ongoing coalition strains on the left, and public surveys showing him viewed as the next leader by under 30% of respondents. Other listed candidates remain at minimal implied probabilities due to party positioning and limited paths to investiture. Recent events including the Urda train incident and related ministerial changes have not shifted the overall trajectory in the final campaign weeks. The market resolves to the individual who secures a confidence vote and assumes office by early 2028.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister who does not receive a parliamentary vote of confidence will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Spain; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.