- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 13, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 14, 2026?4¢4 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 15, 2026?2¢2 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 16, 2026?4¢4 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 17, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 18, 2026?5¢5 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 19, 2026?10¢10 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 20, 2026?8¢8 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 21, 2026?2¢2 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 22, 2026?1¢1 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 23, 2026?3¢3 %
- Will the next Grok model (4.8+) be released on November 24, 2026?14¢14 %
- 0,3 %November 13Objem 392,8 $
- 4 %4,3 %November 14Objem 311,4 $
- 1,6 %November 15Objem 277,2 $
- 4,5 %November 16Objem 325,9 $
- 6 %0,7 %November 17Objem 414,1 $
- 1 %4,5 %November 18Objem 324,6 $
- 3 %9,8 %November 19Objem 572,5 $
- 13 %8,2 %November 20Objem 1,3 tis. $
- 1,7 %November 21Objem 443,9 $
- 1,1 %November 22Objem 358,5 $
- 2,6 %November 23Objem 296,5 $
- 14,2 %November 24Objem 405,4 $
Elon Musk’s November 10 announcement that Grok 4.8 has finished pre-training, entered reinforcement learning with rising evals, and will receive a limited soft rollout to Grok Bot users that week has anchored trader expectations around mid-to-late November dates. The model’s rewritten RL and inference stack in C/C++ plus extensive SFT data cleanup introduce some uncertainty about exact timing, while the gap between a narrow bot deployment and broader platform or API availability keeps probabilities distributed across November 18–24. Recent rapid iteration from Grok 4.7 (September) and competitive pressure from models like Claude Opus 5.5 further support the market’s view that a release is likely before month-end.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.