- Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?62¢62 %
- Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?39¢39 %
- Will Green Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1 %
- Will ACT New Zealand win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1 %
- Will New Zealand First Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1 %
- Will Te Pāti Māori win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?<1¢<1 %
6 %61,5 %National PartyObjem 103,7 tis. $
6 %39 %Labour PartyObjem 79,2 tis. $
New Zealand's November 7 general election under the MMP system remains tightly contested, with recent polling averages placing the incumbent National Party and Labour within a point or two on party vote. National's path to government relies on its existing coalition partners ACT and NZ First securing enough seats for a majority, while Labour would require support from the Greens and potentially The Opportunities Party. Traders assign National a clear lead in implied probability, reflecting its incumbency status under Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, established coalition arrangements, and historical patterns of centre-right governments retaining power in close races despite swings in individual polls. Late-campaign focus on cost-of-living pressures, healthcare, and economic management has kept both major blocs competitive, with minor parties holding potential balance-of-power influence if they clear the five percent threshold.
Pravidla
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).