Blízký východ · IzraelNetanyahu out by...?

Netanyahu out by...?

• Netanyahu out by end of 2026?36¢36 %
• Netanyahu out by March 31, 2027?56¢56 %
• Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?60¢60 %

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Israel's October 27, 2026, legislative election produced a hung Knesset, with Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc securing 53 seats and the main opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot at 48 seats—both short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government. Arab-led parties gained a record 19 seats but remain excluded from most coalition calculations due to prior pledges by Jewish parties. President Isaac Herzog must designate a candidate to attempt coalition formation by November 11, after which Netanyahu continues as caretaker prime minister with authority over security and foreign policy matters, including relations with Iran. Failed negotiations could trigger new elections in early 2027, while any unity government or rotation deal would require cross-bloc agreements on leadership and policy priorities. These procedural timelines and bloc arithmetic directly shape trader assessments of Netanyahu's tenure.