- Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?4¢4 %
Meloni’s center-right coalition has maintained parliamentary stability since 2022, becoming Italy’s longest-serving postwar government by October 2026. The October passage of the Stabilicum electoral reform, which awards a majority bonus to coalitions exceeding 42 percent, sets the framework for the 2027 general election while requiring pre-election prime-ministerial candidates. Recent polling shows the center-right and center-left alliances nearly tied near 44 percent, with the rise of Roberto Vannacci’s far-right movement eroding Meloni’s base and complicating coalition arithmetic. Opposition parties have begun coordinating a joint program and primaries ahead of the vote, while Meloni’s government continues routine legislative activity without immediate confidence threats. The next scheduled election remains the primary mechanism that could end her premiership.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.