- Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026?25¢25 %
- Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?75¢75 %
- Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 4 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will 5 or more Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 3 %24,5 %1 (25 bps)Objem 740,4 tis. $
- 3 %74,5 %2 (50 bps)Objem 248,3 tis. $
- 0,6 %3 (75 bps)Objem 209,1 tis. $
Recent inflation readings remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, combined with resilient economic growth and a stable labor market, have anchored trader expectations around two 25-basis-point rate hikes for 2026. The September 25 bp increase to the 3.75-4.00% target range marked the first tightening move in years, while the October hold—with two dissents favoring further action—left markets pricing a high probability of another hike at the December FOMC meeting. Updated September SEP projections lifted the median year-end federal funds rate to 4.1%, reflecting stronger GDP forecasts and elevated core PCE readings near 3.3-3.4%. This path aligns with the 65.5% market-implied probability for exactly two hikes, as additional moves beyond December appear limited by the year-end deadline and the Committee’s data-dependent stance.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting). Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.