- Will no one dissent the December Fed decision?73¢73 %
- Will one person dissent the December Fed decision?11¢11 %
- Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?10¢10 %
- Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?3¢3 %
- Will four or more people dissent the December Fed decision?3¢3 %
- 4 %73 %0Objem 24,1 tis. $
- 2 %11,2 %1Objem 8,4 tis. $
- 1 %10,2 %2Objem 7,8 tis. $
- 2 %2,7 %3Objem 3,5 tis. $
- 1 %2,7 %4+Objem 6,5 tis. $
Market-implied odds heavily favor zero dissents at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting, reflecting trader views that incoming data will produce sufficient alignment around the prevailing policy stance. The Fed held the federal funds target range at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 by a 10-2 vote, with Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid persistent inflation—core PCE near 3.1% year-over-year and headline readings elevated by energy prices. Strong Q3 growth, resilient consumer spending, and a stable labor market have kept upside risks to inflation in focus, with futures pricing another quarter-point move by year-end. The upcoming October CPI, PCE, and employment releases before the blackout period represent the key swing factors, while the Summary of Economic Projections release may channel differences into dots rather than formal votes. Historical precedent of multiple 2026 meetings with 1-3 hawkish dissents exists, yet the 73% probability on zero dissents indicates markets assess limited scope for broader splits if data reinforces the majority's data-dependent approach.
Pravidla
The December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 9, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET. This market will resolve according to the number of dissenting votes recorded at the December Federal Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.