- France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?<1¢<1 %
- France declares state of siege (martial law) by December 31, 2026?2¢2 %
- 0,5 %November 15Objem 131,8 tis. $
- 2,2 %December 31Objem 104,1 tis. $
Ongoing social unrest in France, including October 2026 riots and looting tied to cost-of-living concerns, education funding disputes, and opposition to budget austerity, has driven localized curfews and heightened police deployments across cities such as Paris, Lyon, and Nice. The minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu has signaled readiness for a state of emergency if required but has prioritized targeted restrictions over broader measures. A state of siege under Article 36 of the Constitution, which transfers police powers to military authorities in cases of imminent armed insurrection or foreign war, has not been invoked as of early November 2026. Large-scale strikes and demonstrations on November 5, combined with the rejected 2027 budget and fiscal pressures, sustain uncertainty ahead of further planned actions and the 2027 presidential transition.
Pravidla
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of siege" (état de siège) as defined by Article 36 of the French Constitution and Articles L2121-1 to L2121-8 of the Defence Code (Code de la défense). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of siege under Article 36 of the French Constitution will count. If the legal name of the state of siege changes but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a state of emergency (état d'urgence) under Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955, a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire), the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, or the deployment or requisition of the armed forces for domestic security operations (e.g. Opération Sentinelle) without a decree declaring a state of siege will not count. Statements that a state of siege is being considered, or informal references to "martial law", will not count unless accompanied by a qualifying decree. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.