- Will Javier Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?60¢60 %
- Will Axel Kicillof win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?28¢28 %
- Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?6¢6 %
- Will Daniel Hadad win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Karina Milei win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Guillermo Moreno win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Sergio Massa win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?5¢5 %
- Will Myriam Bregman win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?4¢4 %
- Will Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de Pedro win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?4¢4 %
- Will Patricia Bullrich win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?3¢3 %
- Will Facundo Manes win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?2¢2 %
- Will Juan Grabois win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 Argentina presidential election?2¢2 %
3 %60 %Javier MileiObjem 7 tis. $
17 %28 %Axel KicillofObjem 5,4 tis. $
2 %5,9 %Cristina Fernández de KirchnerObjem 329,3 $
5,5 %Daniel HadadObjem 445,8 $
5,1 %Karina MileiObjem 342,2 $
4,9 %Guillermo MorenoObjem 448,9 $
4,6 %Sergio MassaObjem 3,9 tis. $
4,1 %Myriam BregmanObjem 437,4 $
3,8 %Eduardo Enrique "Wado" de PedroObjem 334,3 $
1 %2,6 %Patricia BullrichObjem 630,9 $
2,4 %Facundo ManesObjem 285,6 $
2,2 %Juan GraboisObjem 542 $
Javier Milei holds the leading position in trader consensus for the first round of Argentina’s October 2027 presidential election, reflecting his status as incumbent and La Libertad Avanza’s strong 2025 midterm showing. Recent polling averages place him narrowly ahead of or tied with Buenos Aires Governor Axel Kicillof in head-to-head scenarios, while economic indicators show reduced inflation and a balanced budget alongside uneven growth and elevated poverty levels. Milei has framed the contest as a choice between continued reforms and reversal, and internal party statements have consolidated him as the sole La Libertad Avanza candidate. Kicillof and other Peronist figures register lower implied probabilities amid fragmented opposition and ongoing debates over primaries. Traders appear to weigh these structural and timing factors against approval ratings near 38 percent.
Pravidla
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Argentina on October 24, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Argentine government, specifically the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).