- Will Anthropic be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?43¢43 %
- Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?30¢30 %
- Will Google be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?25¢25 %
- Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?6¢6 %
- Will OpenAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?6¢6 %
- Will ByteDance be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?3¢3 %
- Will Nvidia be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will SpaceXAI be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Baidu be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will Xiaomi be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will DeepSeek be the #2 AI lab at the end of December 2026?<1¢<1 %
43,1 %AnthropicObjem 13,7 tis. $
30,2 %MetaObjem 4,5 tis. $
2 %24,5 %GoogleObjem 4,5 tis. $
1 %6,3 %AlibabaObjem 606,9 $
1 %5,8 %OpenAIObjem 839,1 $
2,8 %ByteDanceObjem 1,1 tis. $
0,7 %NvidiaObjem 560,9 $
0,7 %SpaceXAIObjem 532,1 $
0,7 %Z.aiObjem 537,1 $
0,5 %BaiduObjem 467,2 $
0,5 %XiaomiObjem 467,2 $
0,5 %DeepSeekObjem 467,2 $
Trader sentiment in this closely contested AI lab market shows high uncertainty over which developer will rank second by year-end, with many outcomes clustered near 50% implied probability. Anthropic leads at 40.1%, ahead of Meta at 31.4% and Google at 26.0%, while OpenAI sits at just 5.8%, underscoring how incremental gains in large language model performance, safety alignments, and features such as style control can rapidly alter competitive positioning. Recent benchmark results and capability demonstrations have kept the field tight, with traders weighing factors like release cadence, developer ecosystem strength, and regulatory scrutiny. Key upcoming catalysts include potential model updates or industry events that could break the deadlock before resolution.
Pravidla
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".