- Will Angus Taylor be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?21¢
- Will Robbie Katter be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?1¢
- Will Pauline Hanson be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?27¢
- Will Larissa Waters be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?<1¢
- Will Jim Chalmers be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?15¢
- Will Anthony Albanese be Prime Minister of Australia after the next election?37¢
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent Australian polling reveals a highly fragmented electorate, with One Nation often matching or approaching Labor’s primary vote while the Coalition trails significantly under Angus Taylor. This volatility, alongside projections of a hung parliament, has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered among multiple contenders for prime minister. Incumbent Anthony Albanese faces sustained negative net approval, yet retains an edge in some preferred-PM measures; Pauline Hanson’s party gains have elevated her profile without translating into consistent leadership leads; and Taylor’s position remains constrained by low party support. Potential post-election coalition negotiations or preference flows among minor parties and independents continue to sustain uncertainty, with any sustained shift in primary-vote trends or leadership approval likely to widen gaps among the frontrunners ahead of the 2028 deadline.