Geopolitical supply risks from constrained shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of WTI prices in August 2026, keeping spot levels near $85–87 per barrel as global inventories draw down sharply. The EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Brent averaging $85/bbl for Q3 2026 under persistent Middle East constraints of roughly 0.6 million barrels per day, with U.S. commercial stocks below five-year averages and robust export demand providing additional support. Recent price swings, including a 4% drop on diplomatic progress signals between the U.S. and Iran, underscore sensitivity to any normalization of flows that could ease the risk premium. Traders are monitoring weekly inventory reports and potential de-escalation milestones for shifts in the near-term path, with forward curves reflecting the balance between current tightness and expected Q4 rebuilding.