- Will BSW win less than 3% of all valid second votes?27¢
- Will BSW win between 3% and 5% of all valid second votes?47¢
- Will BSW win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?28¢
- Will BSW win at least 7% of all valid second votes?<1¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by BSW in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Recent polling in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern consistently places the BSW near 4 percent ahead of the 20 September state election, reflecting limited voter consolidation for the party amid stronger showings by the AfD, SPD, and Linke. Multiple August surveys from Infratest dimap, Forsa, and INSA show the BSW holding steady at this level after earlier readings between 4 and 6 percent, while the Greens hover at or just above the 5 percent threshold. The BSW’s narrow 5.3 percent result in the concurrent Saxony-Anhalt vote, exceeding late polls, has prompted campaign optimism and intensified last-minute efforts in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, yet structural competition from established smaller parties and the five-percent hurdle continue to constrain higher-share scenarios. Trader consensus around the 3–5 percent band aligns with this evidence of a close but sub-threshold outcome.