- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?46¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?5¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 40% or more?<1¢
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by at least 5%?<1¢
- Will Seth Moulton win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 5–10%?<1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 10–15%?1¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?4¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%?8¢
- Will Ed Markey win the Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?70¢
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ed Markey secured the Democratic nomination for the Massachusetts U.S. Senate seat by a substantial margin over challenger Seth Moulton in the September 1 primary, with results showing the incumbent capturing roughly 65 percent of the vote. Markey’s strong positioning stemmed from his long record on progressive priorities including the Green New Deal and Medicare for All, bolstered by endorsements from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Moulton’s emphasis on generational change and questions about the 80-year-old incumbent’s age failed to overcome these advantages in a heavily Democratic state where ideological alignment and turnout among progressive voters proved decisive. Recent polling averages and final vote counts aligned with trader consensus around a 25–30 point victory margin, while low probabilities attached to Moulton winning or extreme outliers reflected the absence of late momentum shifts or structural barriers that could have altered the outcome.