- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on September 2?8¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on September 2?78¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and major models show Tokyo's overnight minimum on September 2 stabilizing near 25°C, supported by southerly flow off the Pacific, elevated dew points around 24°C, and persistent cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Early September climatology typically features lows of 22–24°C, but the current pattern—marked by residual summer warmth and no advancing cold front—has kept readings elevated through the night. With light winds and high humidity, the market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that the lowest temperature will align closely with these official guidance values rather than cooler outcomes.