- Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?18¢
- Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?23¢
- Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?5¢
- Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?4¢
- Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?38¢
- Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?8¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
The September 2026 State Duma election uses Russia's mixed electoral system, with 225 proportional list seats and 225 single-member districts where United Russia maintains structural dominance through incumbency, regional administrative resources, and limited genuine opposition. Official polls from FOM and VCIOM place the party at 33–45% support, while Kremlin targets have been adjusted downward to around 45–50% amid economic pressures and wartime fatigue; independent estimates run lower. Recent regional contests and party primaries reinforce expectations of a constitutional majority, though not the higher totals seen in prior cycles. The leading 325–339 seat range aligns with this managed stability and historical conversion rates from similar vote shares, while higher or lower bands reflect uncertainty over turnout and district-level performance in the final weeks before voting.