- Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?93¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 35 and 44 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?3¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 45 and 54 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 55 and 64 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 65 and 74 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
- Will New People (NL) win 85 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2¢
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
New People, a systemic opposition party currently holding 15 Duma seats, faces structural limits in Russia's mixed electoral system ahead of the 18–20 September vote. Kremlin-managed outcomes typically allocate modest representation to approved parties to preserve pluralism without threatening United Russia dominance, regardless of polling that has shown the party at 12–15 percent in some surveys. Recent candidate list approvals and regional activity have not altered this pattern, as single-member districts and proportional allocation remain subject to administrative influence. The market's heavy weighting toward under 35 seats reflects this precedent and the narrow window for genuine expansion. Shifts could occur only through an abrupt change in official strategy or unforeseen disruptions to the controlled process.