- Will exactly 0 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
- Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed?72¢
- Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?22¢
- Will exactly 3 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?2¢
- Will exactly 4 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
- Will at least 5 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the number of Israeli legislative elections that occur between market creation and the formation of a government in the Knesset or December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes earlier. This market will resolve solely based on the number of elections that occur, where occurrence is defined as nationwide election-day voting open to eligible voters across Israel. Publication of an election’s results will have no bearing on this market. Early or special voting mechanisms that occur before election day (e.g., voting by soldiers or citizens abroad) will not affect resolution. Only the dates of general election-day voting will count. A government will be considered formed if it passes a vote of confidence in the Knesset. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The October 27, 2026, Knesset election under Israel's proportional representation system with a 3.25% threshold stands as the dominant factor behind the 70.5% market price on one election before government formation. Recent polls show Netanyahu's right-wing bloc near 48-51 seats and the Zionist opposition bloc near 56-67, with neither side assured of 61 but small shifts in alliances, threshold crossings by splinter parties, or post-vote negotiations potentially delivering a majority. The outgoing Knesset completed its full term without early dissolution, and party list deadlines approaching in early September have intensified jockeying among smaller factions without signs of immediate deadlock. Historical patterns of extended coalition talks after fragmented results support the implied probability that the president’s mandate process yields a government without triggering additional elections before the market’s 2027 cutoff.