- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 4?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 4?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 4?11¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 4?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on September 4?1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models point to a modest daytime maximum of 21–23 °C in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain, and westerly flow under a broad Atlantic low-pressure system. Official and ensemble guidance (including GFS-based products) show widespread stratiform and convective clouds suppressing solar heating, with surface winds from the west maintaining mild maritime air. This setup keeps the daily peak well below late-summer normals and aligns with the market’s tight clustering on 21 °C (31 %) and 22 °C (38 %), while the smaller 23 °C share (17.5 %) reflects residual uncertainty in exact cloud timing and any brief breaks in overcast. Resolution hinges on the official 24-hour maximum reported by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.