- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 2?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 2?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 2?33¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 2?44¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 2?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 2?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on September 2?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marine layer and onshore flow are suppressing maximum temperatures in San Francisco for September 2, 2026, keeping the daily high centered in the low-to-mid 70s at official reporting sites. National Weather Service guidance and multiple model runs show mostly cloudy conditions with light drizzle possible through midday, limiting solar heating and holding highs near or slightly below the long-term September 2 average of 69.6 °F. Recent observations confirm persistent southwest winds of 5–15 mph and high relative humidity, which favor the 70–73 °F range that dominates market-implied odds (72–73 °F at 43 %, 70–71 °F at 30 %). A weak frontal system passing overnight has introduced modest cooling and cloud cover that reduces the chance of stronger afternoon warming, while the absence of offshore flow or high-pressure ridging prevents temperatures from climbing into the mid-70s or higher. Traders appear to weigh these factors against historical variability, assigning the bulk of probability to outcomes consistent with current NWS point forecasts and ensemble consensus rather than outlier warm scenarios.