- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 3?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on September 3?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on September 3?32¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on September 3?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model consensus for New York City on September 3 show highs centered in the mid-80s, with most guidance indicating 84–86°F amid southwest flow, high humidity, and a 60–80% chance of showers that may limit afternoon heating. This consensus underpins the near-even split in market-implied odds between 84–85°F and 86–87°F, as traders weigh the potential for partial clearing versus persistent cloud cover and precipitation timing. Above-normal temperatures relative to early-September climatology add modest upside risk, yet model spread on convective details keeps lower and higher bins thinly priced. Updated NWS briefings and afternoon model runs will refine resolution criteria before the daily maximum is recorded.