- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on September 9?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on September 9?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on September 9?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on September 9?52¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on September 9?26¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on September 9?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on September 9?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C or higher on September 9?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from sources like the UK Met Office and global models indicate a daily maximum of 19–21°C for London on September 9, 2026, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward 20°C (52.5%) and 21°C (25.5%). Northwest winds and a transient Atlantic front are expected to keep conditions near seasonal norms for early September, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers possible, and highs peaking in the afternoon before cooling overnight. Model consensus (GFS and others) shows limited warming potential due to moderating maritime air and no strong high-pressure setup, while historical baselines place typical September maxima around 19–20°C. Recent runs have stabilized in this range without major shifts from earlier cooler signals, supporting the tight clustering around 20°C as the implied-probability favorite. Traders are monitoring the next Met Office and ECMWF updates for any late adjustments in steering patterns or cloud cover that could nudge the peak by 1–2°C.