- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on September 4?8¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 4?16¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on September 4?30¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 4?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and numerical models indicate a September 4 maximum near 28–29°C, with traders assigning nearly equal weight to these outcomes amid extensive cloud cover, scattered showers, and northwest winds tied to nearby tropical cyclone influences. Persistent cloudiness limits surface heating and solar insolation, while elevated humidity and onshore flow suppress peaks relative to the early-September climatological mean maximum of about 31°C. Variable shower timing and any brief breaks in cloud could shift the daily high by 1–2°C, keeping market-implied odds closely balanced until updated model runs and the next HKO briefing provide clearer resolution signals.