- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 4?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on September 4?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on September 4?35¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on September 4?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent official forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate a maximum of 32–33 °C for Beijing on September 4 under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Light southerly winds, low precipitation probability, and clear conditions overnight favor strong daytime solar insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, supporting afternoon peaks near these values. With September climatological averages around 26–28 °C, the current setup reflects above-normal warmth driven by persistent high pressure rather than extreme heat advection. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 32–34 °C because small differences in model timing of cloud development or wind shifts could easily tip the daily high by 1 °C. Traders are closely watching the next model runs and any morning updates from monitoring agencies, as resolution hinges on the precise peak reading.