- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 87°F or below on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on September 4?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on September 4?18¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on September 4?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on September 4?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 106°F or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent National Weather Service forecasts for Austin on September 4 project a high near 98°F under partly sunny skies with a 30% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though several mesoscale models cluster 3–5°F cooler amid increased cloud cover and southeasterly flow. This uncertainty centers market-implied odds on the 92–95°F range because convective development can reduce surface insolation and trigger evaporative cooling that caps peak readings below guidance. Historical climatology shows a 93.8°F average high, while the preceding day’s 100°F+ readings reflect stronger subsidence before moisture returns. Traders weigh these factors against model spread in boundary-layer mixing and storm timing, which determine whether the daily maximum settles in the lower or mid-90s.