- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?8¢
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?17¢
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?5¢
- Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?10¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?11¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?28¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?7¢
- Will the Fed Pause–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?8¢
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?11¢
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Recent cooling in July CPI to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has eased some immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve, supporting the 28% implied probability for Pause-Pause-Pause across the September, October/November, and December meetings, though the fragmented field underscores ongoing uncertainty. With the policy rate steady at the 3.50–3.75% target range amid headline PCE inflation near 4% earlier in the year from energy shocks, trader consensus prices in a closely balanced debate between maintaining accommodation and the need for further tightening to anchor expectations. August CPI data due September 11 and the FOMC's September 16–17 decision with updated projections represent key near-term catalysts, while labor market stability around 4.1–4.3% unemployment and resilient growth limit the case for aggressive moves. Market-implied paths remain sensitive to whether disinflation proves durable or reaccelerates.