This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 8 12:00 PM ET to September 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Traders see the 160–239 tweet range as the most probable outcome for Elon Musk’s X activity from September 8–15 because recent weekly totals have settled in that band, with the latest full week landing at 220–239 and the prior one at 160–179. Steady daily engagement around 25–35 posts, driven by Tesla product updates, xAI developments, and routine platform commentary, has established a reliable baseline absent major product launches or political flashpoints. The tight clustering among the top three brackets reflects this consistency while leaving room for modest variance from viral threads or news cycles. Upcoming catalysts remain limited in the immediate window, keeping the market focused on Musk’s established cadence rather than outlier spikes.