- Will CDU win fewer than 25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?2¢
- Will CDU win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?14¢
- Will CDU win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?30¢
- Will CDU win 35-39 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?37¢
- Will CDU win 40-44 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?17¢
- Will CDU win 45 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?3¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the CDU party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polls ahead of Berlin’s 20 September Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest with the CDU, Linke, AfD and Greens clustered between 18–22 percent, while the SPD trails. The CDU’s replacement of lead candidate Kai Wegner with Stefan Evers in July has stabilized but not decisively lifted its numbers, leaving seat projections for the party concentrated in the low-to-mid 30s. With turnout, late shifts among smaller parties and the 5 percent threshold still uncertain, traders see limited separation between the 30–34 and 35–39 seat bands as the most probable outcomes.