- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be less than 600,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 600,000 and 675,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 675,000 and 750,000?<1¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 750,000 and 825,000?3¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 825,000 and 900,000?28¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?36¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 975,000 and 1,050,000?33¢
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be 1,050,000 or more?3¢
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the low-competitiveness 2026 Arkansas Senate contest between incumbent Republican Tom Cotton and Democrat Hallie Shoffner, trader estimates cluster tightly around 825,000–1.05 million total ballots because the Solid Republican fundamentals and limited statewide mobilization efforts point to typical midterm participation without the surge seen in battlegrounds. Recent primary turnout data and polling averages showing Cotton’s double-digit lead reinforce expectations of steady but not elevated Republican base engagement alongside modest Democratic participation in a state last won by Democrats for Senate in 2008. Key variables that could shift volumes include the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote operations, early and absentee voting trends through early November, and any national political developments that alter voter enthusiasm before Election Day.